In 2014, the mobile Web will
die. That’s right, that bastardized version of the normal Web will crawl
into a shallow grave and leave us all in peace. No more websites crippled with
horrible “mobile.yourawfulwebsite.com” URLs. No more reading junky websites
that display way too much fine print or omit crucial features when viewed on
your smartphone or tablet.
How will we kill the mobile Web? Not
with kindness, that’s for sure. The death of the mobile Web should be ruthless
and efficient, coming on the backs of development, iteration and innovation.
Google, Microsoft and Apple will lead the charge.
This year, we saw a lot of
developmental gains in the browsers on mobile devices:
·
Apple updated Safari in iOS 7 to be
faster and more agile
·
Google showed off its newest
version of its Chrome browser at Google I/O in May this year to show the
same website running on a PC, tablet and smartphone without a hitch
·
Microsoft’s latest Internet Explorer
in Windows 8.1 RT and Windows Phone 8 is the fastest and most diverse that the
company has ever created
·
Mozilla unleashed its Firefox OS on
the world, a browser-based mobile operating system designed on the principles
of HTML5.
The mobile Web will die because the
companies that make the engines it ran upon are killing their mobile browsers
and replacing them with fully functional versions that run on any device. In
2014, these browsers will be updated to put the final nail in its coffin.
In turn, developers will continue to
build websites that can work across any screen size. Responsive design (what we
do at Read Write to make the site look pretty everywhere) will continue to grow
in 2014 as people realize that their old websites are losing them a lot of
traffic from mobile devices.
That’s the prediction, at least. Now
it's up to 2014 to prove me right.
Looking Backward
Last year I went out on a limb with my
mobile predictions for 2013. As always, the prognostications were a little
hit and miss.
I said that BlackBerry (then still
Research In Motion) would kill it with the new BlackBerry 10 operating
system. Today, BlackBerry announced a $4.4 billion quarterly loss.
OK, so I pooched that one badly. But
I got the next one right when I said that Microsoft would continue to iterate
and expand with Windows Phone. While Microsoft hasn't yet hit it big with its
rival to iOS and Android, it's still gaining ground, so I'll count that as a
win. With Nokia now in its fold, next year may be the acid test for Windows
Phone.
I was right when I said that Apple
would release the iPhone first and the iPad second this year, as the iPhone was
released in September and the iPhone in late October. A minor prediction for
2014: Apple will do this again.
Google tweaked me with its Android
releases in 2013. I expected Android 5.0 Key Lime Pie and thought we'd see
three different iterations of Android this year. Instead we got two: the Jelly
Bean 4.3 update in July and the KitKat 4.4 update at the end of October. The
age of the major Android update is over, and we'll continue to see iterative
updates over time. This is not a prediction; it's merely a fact. In 2014, we
will likely see two new versions of Android at mid-year and the end of the
year.
Motorola didn’t make a Nexus device
this year. It did make the Moto X, which is the next best thing. Motorola will
likely continue with the Moto brand of devices in 2014 without making an actual
Nexus device.
Location-based consumer apps didn't
let me down; as predicted, they remained stagnant this year. Foursquare and its
kindred just are not hot anymore, even if Foursquare did just raise a funding
round this week.
On the other hand, mobile payments
continued to gain traction. Personally, I use a mobile payments app every day
with the Square Wallet at my local coffee shop. Mobile payments may never
be the techno-utopia that everybody envisioned in 2011, but the industry is
beginning to take shape. In 2014, we will see more people start using apps like
Google Wallet and Square to pay at retailers everywhere. It won’t be a major
step, but a progression of small ones.
Looking Forward
1. There Will Be No Apple Television
Set
That’s it. Let’s quit it with the
rumors about an actual Apple TV set until Tim Cook is showing it off on stage.
2. The Apple iWatch Cometh
This is a far more realistic goal
for Apple than shoehorning its way into the crowded, complicated and expensive
TV market. An iWatch would be an accessory to your iPhone—not a revolutionary
product, but a useful and likely very popular one. The bold prediction: the
iWatch will come in the spring and be touted as great way to track your fitness
routines, taking advantage of the iPhone’s M7 motion coprocessor.
3. Samsung’s Lead In Smartphones
Will Decline
This may actually be under way
already, given rumours that its Galaxy S4 flagship phone is selling only about
as well as its predecessor, the S3. That wouldn't be terribly surprising, given
the S4's under whelmingness, Samsung’s over-the-top marketing
and its love of not-terribly-reliable software gimmicks.
Samsung smartphones just aren't as
sexy as they were in 2011 and 2012. Clearly, the company will continue to sell
vast numbers of devices, but its status as the global mobile powerhouse will
slip. That's going to create an opening that Motorola and HTC can and will
seize.
4. HTML5 Takes Over The Mobile Web
Everybody continues their
handwringing over the decline of HTML5, but in truth the Web standard made a
lot of progress in 2013. Web APIs created by Mozilla gave HTML5 some much
needed oomph that help it run apps on smartphones and tablets. Combined with
CSS and JavaScript, HTML5 is what the Web will be built on in the future. And
it will just be the Web, mobile or otherwise.
5. Google Glass Becomes A Consumer
Product
In so many ways, 2013 was the year
that Google Glass got beta tested. The Glass “Explorers” program was rolled out
to a small subset of techies and Google got developers on board for future apps
for Glass. It's time for Google to unleash its interesting and controversial
cyborg headsets on the world. Prediction: Google will announce Glass for the
masses at Google I/O with a retail price of $299.
6. Android Goes 64-Bit
This isn't actually much of a bold
prediction. ARM announced a 64-bit architecture a few years ago with the aim of
making it to the mainstream by 2014 or so. Apple has already proved that ARM
can work on 64-bit with the iPhone 5S and the iPad Air. Expect Samsung to roll
out the first 64-bit ARM chip in a popular Android smartphone, with the
blessing of Google.
7. The Concept Of “Mobile” Will Die
Since 2007, when Apple squeezed the
power of a PC into a phone, the technology industry has been working to create
the same systems, functionality and processes to work with this new class of
computing device. Consumers, enterprises, advertising, industry, agriculture …
everything that computing touches has been working to catch up with the mobile
era.
Eventually it will catch up and
instead of thinking of things as “mobile” specifically, it will just be seen as
a way to use a computer from anywhere and everywhere. The era of ubiquitous
computing is already upon us.
